Poisson statistics:

P(n,μ)=eμn/n!
μ=Ntheory=εLσ+b
n=Nobserved

To set a limit on a parameter p entering in Ntheory at a certain CL:
P(Nobserved,Ntheory(p))<1-CL

Example - limits when no event is observed:
P(0,μ)=e
i.e. μ=-log[P(0,μ)]>-log(1-CL)

Useful number: -log(0.05)~3.